5.6.2011

Here comes Yemen

The reports of Ali Abdullah Saleh's leave of Yemen, for medical treatment in Saudi Arabia, following an artillery attack on his palace compound by opposition forces, even if accepted at face value, are more than likely the final accord of his era of rule in Yemen.
When observing the situation in Yemen, one cannot waive the the suspicions that Saleh was killed in the attack and that his supporters are hiding his death, in a manner similar to the incidents following the successful assassination of Laurent-Désiré Kabila, past leader of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Only time may reveal what really happened.
Saleh's death, if indeed he did not survive that attack, does not necessarily mean a peaceful time for Yemen. Just the end of his rule. It is impossible to estimate whether or not Yemen will reach peace in the coming months, or if it is doomed for a long civil war between tribes, groups and external powers.

There is also no doubt that more than any other Arab state of this day and age, Yemen may be the first state in which a extremist Islamic stream of reaches power (and lets put aside for a minute the issue of Afghanistan and the streams of Taliban and El-Qaeda there, at past and at present). 
Still, one can hope that even such a change takes place, considering Yemen's place in the Arab world, and real-politic considerations, may lead even an extremist group to seriously consider democracy, especially if power was reached by cooperation with other, less extreme streams. 

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