Donald Trump is the president elect of the United States of America

After counting most of the votes in most of the states, media reported that Hillary Clinton called Donald Trump and conceded. Trump gave a surprisingly mild and gloriously unifying winner's speech.


Trump expressed appreciation to Hillary Clinton's campaign and service to the United States. He delivered unifying messages:  "Now is time for america to bind the wounds of division...it is time for us to come together as one united people...I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president of all Americans...for those who have chosen not support me in the past... I am reaching out to you... so that we can work together and unify our great country ..."

He repeated promises of rebuilding the nation, supporting veterans... " ...the forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer ... a project of growth and renewal ...we will ... take care of our great veterans... we will double our growth"

He expressed a message of peacefulness towards the world. "we will get along with all other nations willing to get along with us...we will deal fairly with everyone all people and all nations".

Trump thanked a lot of people, starting with his parents and family, and went through a lot of political allies and  activists (Some may find  possible hints in his choice of stressing some thanks over others. For example: what are the expected roles of Rudy Giuliani? Jeff Sessions? Chris Christie? Ben Carson? Mike Flynn? Reince Priebus?)

Trump's final promises:

• "We will not let you down. "
• "We will do a great job. "
• "Our work is just beginning. "

What president elect Trump has not said, although he appeared to be highly aware of, was that now that the campaign ends. The real work begins. While his campaign succeeded using extreme tactics, his governance shall not succeed using similar means. Reviewing the points I chose to quote from his speech it is easy to see that the key for a successful presidency of Donald Trump lies in balance and moderation. Is he going to be able to make it?

So far, Trump has been portraied by the media as the anti-thesis of Theodore Roosevelt's "Big Stick" ideology (which summarizes in the quip "speak softly, and carry a big stick."). But truth is that we do not really know the man. Despite his quick and blunt twitters and statements, he has been able to manage a disciplined campaign, hold it all together, and cross the finish line first.

Now that this exhausting one year race is over, Trump is entering a longer race, one that includes great adversities. For freedom loving people, nothing would be better than having the world's greatest superpower becoming stronger while keeping its unique democracy intact. Can Trump navigate the ship Americana in the troublesome seas of early 21st century international politics and global economy? How shall he prevail against Chinese and Russian leaderships? How shall he confront the more complicated issues he promised to solve with a harsh hand ? Time will tell.

It is always more popular to foretell hardships and sorrow. But for now, it is advised that all shall remember what was written in this blog many months ago: Donald J. Trump is no joke. He was not playing around as a candidate. It is safe to assume that whatever ways his presidency unfolds, he shall be revealed as a hard working president. Let us hope and pray that his term in office shall be remembered as one of the greatest, and that his name shall be mentioned in the future with former great republican presidents, the likes of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan.

How the wisdom of science fiction could have helped me decide who to vote for in the united states elections

The U.S Elections are coming to their climax tomorrow.

And even this late in the race, it is still unclear which candidate is worse. Donald Trump is still a riddle. Douglas Adams' the Hitchhiker's guide to the Galaxy comes to mind, with a similar puzzle regarding president of the Galaxy Zaphod Beeblebrox.
We are still learning to distinguish -

"between him pretending to be stupid just to get people off their guard, pretending to be stupid because he couldn't be bothered to think and wanted someone else to do it for him, pretending to be outrageously stupid to hide the fact that he actually didn't understand what was going on, and really being genuinely stupid."

Is it true, that Trump, just like Beeblebrox, prefers "people to be puzzled than rather be contemptuous"?

Unlike Trump, Hillary Clinton has never pretended to be stupid. It might be one of the most obvious differences between these two nominees. And yet, her image is tarnished in the eyes of many voters. Considering the gap in governmental experience between these two nominees, it can be said with confidence that more than Trump beating Clinton, these have been elections in which Clinton was constantly displaying an ongoing inability to become acceptable as a nominee in the eyes of a great part of the republican college of voters.

comparing the levels of loathing in both camps, it seems that despite Trump's horrible collection of blemishes, which may very well be an unprecedented record in U.S history of elections, Clinton is still the most loathed nominee to be campaigning for ages. Considering the fact that she is following the campaigns of Barack Obama, the first non-white U.S  president, this says something.

Facing with two nominees who are utterly unacceptable in the eyes of the other half of the nation, the U.S has a very difficult time ahead, whoever may win.

This may very well be a good time to take another bit of wisdom from Douglas Adams, this time from the Restaurant at the end of the universe:

"...one of the many major problems with governing people is that of whom you get to do it; or rather of who manages to get people to let them do it to them. To summarize: it is a well known fact that those people who must want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it. To summarize the summary: anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job. To summarize the summary of the summary: people are a problem."

The solution proposed by the ingenious Science Fiction writer? the ruler must be someone who does not want to do it. Democracies have chosen a different path. But in times of great alienation within the nation, the difficulty of finding a unifying leader may be impossible to overcome. Think Abraham Lincoln. His election did not bring unity. It brought a civil war, because people opposing him knew what his election meant.

What does the election of Trump or Clinton mean to the other side of the political map?  Can either one of them find within oneself the great (and currently hidden) ability that shall be demanded to lead the U.S of A towards a unified future?

Of the two, Trump seems as the less probable one to be able to become a non-divisive president. That is the reason why, had I been a U.S citizen, Hillary Clinton would have been my vote. Not because of any confidence in what type of president she might become. Because of the certainty of what kind of president Donald Trump cannot become.

And if you wonder if there is another secret ingredient behind Donald Trump's success in his 2016 campaigns, John Oliver has an interesting suggestion:

אז אלה יהיו הילארי נגד דונאלד, אה ?

אז אלה יהיו הילארי נגד דונאלד, אה ? 

אפשר לשמוע אנחות כבדות מחלקים רחבים של היציעים הדמיוניים, סביב קרב הגלדיאטורים הזה. 

האומנם זה מה שארצות הברית של אמריקה מסוגלת להציע ?

האם השניים האלה הם המיטב שיש למערכת הפוליטית האמריקאית ? 

בכל זאת, ארה"ב, אתם יודעים, מנהיגת העולם החופשי?

אחת מ-3 המעצמות הגדולות של הגלובוס (לצד סין ורוסיה) ? 

ומה שהיא יכולה להציע לנו זה -

• או מזכירת מדינה שהצליחה להמאיס את עצמה על הצעירים של מפלגתה בדרכה הכל-כך ממסדית 
• או מיליארדר שחצן שהצליח להמאיס עצמו על כל אדם הגון בטקטיקות שלו ? 

מה עם איזה ג'ון קנדי? פרנק דלאנו רוזוולט ? אברהם לינקולן ? ג'ורג' וושינגטון ? 

האמת היא שכל ה-4 שהזכרנו - ג'ון, פרנק, אברהם וג'ורג' - זכו גם הם בזמנם לביקורת קשה מצד יריביהם הפוליטיים. לגבי קנדי, רוזבלט ולינקולן הדברים ידועים.

לגבי וושינגון הדברים זכורים פחות. 

הדברים הבאים למשל על וושינגטון- 

"a brief but trite review of your six years administration, mark the progressive steps which have led the way to the present public evils that afflict your country. . .the unerring voice of posterity will not fail to render the just sentence of condemnation on the man who has entailed upon his country deep and incurable public evils." 

("Belisarius," "To the President of the United States," Aurora General Advertiser, 11 September 1795)

היו יכולים להיות מוטחים על ידי דונאלד טראמפ כלפי הילארי קלינטון ואיש לא היה מהסס לרגע לזהותם כסגנונו של האיש. 

כן, עיקר הבעיה היא נוסטלגיה. בלעדיה, קל להבין שבכל דור היריבות מניעה את ההערכה של המתמודדים של אותה העת. היריבות היא הגורם היוצר מאחורי התלונות על רמתו המוסרית והאישית. היריבות היא הדבר שבלעדיו היינו מביטים על המתמודדים בצורה קצת שונה. 

תגידו מה שתגידו על חסרונותיהם (ויש להם חסרונות) - 

 דונאלד טראמפ הוא איש עסקים בולט, לרוב מצליח, עם סגנון בוטה ופשטני של אמירת האמת שלא, ללא סייגים, ללא היסוס. 

הילארי קלינטון היא מדינאית בולטת, לרוב מצליחה, עם סגנון מורכב וזהיר של התנסחות המבטא תפישה שכלתנית של העולם. 

הסגנונות שלהם מאוד שונים, אבל העימות ביניהם מבטא בצורה עזה, אולי יותר ממערכות-בחירות רבות בעולם הדמוקרטי, שני סגנונות חיים, שתי תפישות פוליטיות, שתי פרספקטיבות על העולם. 

כן, זו לא סתם יריבות. קורה כאן משהו מול עינינו. 

האומנם טראמפ מבטא את השקפת המפלגה הרפובליקנית? האומנם קלינטון מבטא את השקפת המפלגה הדמוקרטית ? 

נדמה שמערכת בחירות בין ברני סאנדרס לבין ג'ב בוש היתה יכולה לבטא בצורה טובה יותר את הפערים בין המפלגות.

נדמה שהפער בין המועמדים לבין הבוחרים הוא גדול יותר ממערכות-בחירות קודמות בעבר. 

נדמה שהעתיד יהיה אחר. 

אני סבור שזו אולי מערכת הבחירות האחרונה תחת הSixth Party System, אותו מערך בריתות פוליטיות ומאזן כוחות בין מפלגתי שמאפיין את ארה"ב כבר כמעט 60 שנה (ויש האומרים כמעט 100 שנה). 

אנחנו בתקופה של שינוי, ומה שהיה הוא לא מה שיהיה. 

לא מאמינים לי?

במקום להתרכז בתלונות על הילארי ועל דונאלד, הקשיבו לדרך בה האנשים סביבם מדברים. 

התבוננו בדרך בה המערכות הפוליטיות פועלות במערכת הבחירות הזו. 

זו הולכת להיות מערכת בחירות מרתקת, בלי קשר לשאלה מי ינצח או תנצח. 

ואם רק נפסיק להתלונן על רמתם של המתמודדים, ונבין שהעימות כאן הוא על משהו גדול יותר, אולי גם נוכל להינות מזה. 

Donald J. Trump is no joke

I keep hearing reporters and analysts over here in Israel and around the world, in and  outside the U.S, stating that Donald John Trump, Sr. has no real chance to become the next president of the United States of America.

I beg to differ. We should let personal preferences and prejudices aside, and look at the U.S presidential race realistically.

First half of the race: the race for the Republican nomination

The race for the Republican nomination is obviously widely opened. Trump has as good a chance as any other candidate and following his landslide victory in New Hampshire, it is obvious that he enjoys wide support in all sections of Republican party voters.

Unlike most or all of the other candidates, he enjoys two strong advantages:
1) He is an outsider, and as such, he enjoys near automatic sympathy by all who oppose the establishment. Tea party support, symbolized by Sarah Palin's endorsement of Trump, goes a long way in the Republican party. Not only does it provide a strong base of zealous supporters, it also means that Trump has more freedom. He is allowed for more liberal views than other nominees. This lets the man attract both the extreme and the moderate parts of the Republican party.
2) More than any other nominee, he is the anti-thesis to Barack Obama. Any republican who thought Obama was a bad president, would find Trump appealing. More than most other nominees.

Trump enjoys a great momentum, following his recent victory. Unless strong alliances are formed against him by two or more of the other Republican candidates, this momentum should become an important parameter of its own. It may very well bring Trump to a point where he gets the support of one of the candidates that are expected to withdraw in the coming weeks and months. This will put him far ahead and very near to victory.

Second half of the race: the general elections
Come the general elections, The republicans have a better chance than many believe, regardless of the identity of the Democratic opponent. Everyone would agree that Trump has Reagan-like qualities. The Republicans can be expected to make a lot of Carter/Obama comparisons in the buildup of their candidate's competency for presidency. Trump is expected to pick a moderate vice president (John Kasich or Chris Christie would be great choices) that would make his appeal significantly greater. If Trump and Carly Fiorina can solve their differences, they may prove to be an invincible team.

During general elections, the greater parts of the Republican machine are expected to work for Trump. This is true regardless who the opponent is. Few Republicans I know would prefer Clinton or Sanders over Trump.

And then again, Trump would have a huge advantage over his Democratic rival. Sanders would make him appear as the moderate capitalistic alternative to the left-wing Democrat. Clinton would make him appear as the out-of-town Sheriff that has come to bring peace and justice. And in a third-runner scenario like Michael Bloomberg, Trump can only profit from the expected Democratic voice split.

It all sums up to one possible conclusion: Donald Trump is a serious runner in this race. He should be treated as a real contender and very possibly the next president of the United States of America. He most certainly should not be considered a joke.

האיש שהצליח יותר מדי

קראתי השבוע שהבחירה 'הקשה' מולה היו עתידים חברי הליכוד להתמודד - בין ראש הממשלה המכהן, בנימין נתניהו, לבין פתק לבן-  בוטלה.

הליכוד מעולם לא הדיח ראש ממשלה מכהן (גם לא אריאל שרון ז"ל. זה היה אריק שהותיר את הליכוד מאחוריו כדי להתניע את  'קדימה'). ומכאן שבניגוד לכל תקוות מתנגדיו הפוליטיים, כל עוד הוא זוכה בבחירות, תפקידו של נתניהו כיו"ר הליכוד מובטח לו. 

אדם עם נסיון פוליטי מרשים ופקחות רבה כשלו יודע זאת היטב. 

ובכל זאת,התמרונים שלו הביאו את יריביו לברוח מההתמודדות מולו.

בדיעבד, מבחינת נתניהו היה עדיף לו משה פייגלין היה נשאר בליכוד.
הרי בלי פריימריז הוא מפסיד המון כסף (זוכרים איך נפתלי בנט לימד את כולנו כמה כסף אפשר לגייס  באמצעות פריימריז ?)

גרוע מזה, המצב הזה של שליטה מוחלטת, ללא עוררין, הוא מצב שמאוד מקשה על שמירת השטח במתח ובלי פעילים נלהבים ורעבים, קשה לנצח בבחירות שמוכרעות על בסיס מספר האנשים שטורחים להגיד אל הקלפי ולשים את הפתק. בבחירות הבאות ספק אם מצביעי הליכוד יטרחו לזרום אל הקלפי אפילו אם באמת יראו להם אוטובוסים. מה הטעם לזרום אם הנצחון מובטח כך או כך ?
אז מה יהיה הפתרון של נתניהו ?

הוא הרי יודע את כל מה שנכתב כאן.
הוא מבין שההצלחה שלו היא האויבת הכי גדולה שלו.
אז מה הוא יעשה עכשיו ?

אנחנו יודעים שהוא נפגש עם כחלון ומקדם איזשהוא איחוד פוליטי 
אנחנו גם יודעים שהרטוריקה של אביגדור ליברמן הולכת ומקצינה
ואנחנו יודעים שיש נושא אחד עליו ליברמן ונתניהו מסכימים: הצורך הישראלי במשטר נשיאותי 
ככה הוא גם ייפטר מרובי ריבלין  וגם יוכל להחזיק בעמדת יתרון בולטת מול יריבים פוטנציאליים שהשמאל עלול להעמיד נגדו אם הכנסת תשלים את ימיה.
אבל האם נתניהו ייקח כזה סיכון ?

הרי אם יש משהו שלמדנו על בנימין לאורך השנים זה שהוא מוכן לעשות הכל כדי להימנע מסיכונים מיותרים. אז מה יעשה האיש שהצליח יותר מדי ?

מפחיד לחשוב על זה.

Between fear and hope - the Brazilian elections

Brazil goes to elections today, but polls do not predict a very different tomorrow. Brazilians elect today 1,059 state legislators, the entire 513-seat lower house of the federal Congress, a third of their 81 federal senators, governors of all 27 states and a president.

If to judge from an economic perspective (which is sometimes a very good predictory sign), the recent fall in the Brazilian stocks is mainly due to the markets foreseeing more of the same. So, markets favor candidate Marina Silva for president over incumbent  Dilma Rousseff. But what do Brazilians themselves prefer?

Polls repeatedly tell that Rousseff's popularity is stable. Analyst tend to attribute this to so called popular measures of her government:

• the reduction of the federal tax in the energy bill;
• the exemption of federal tax in the products of the consumer basket (meat, milk, beans, rice, flour, potatoes, tomatoes, bread, sugar, coffee powder, cooking oil, butter, bananas and apples)
• The lowering of the overnight rate conducted by the Central Bank of Brazil 

I tend to be one of those who believe that Roussef shall end victorious. Maybe even after a single round. My reasons are less to do with international analytsts and more with the wind that is sweeping the entire continent. South-America has been seeking a different, more balanced form of government, than the neo-liberal direction it is recommended by economists.

If that prediction is true, and Rousseff is able to win despite the criticism surrounding the constructions for the soccer world cup and the coming Olympic games, and even despite Brazil's defeat in the soccer world cup, then all analysts who predicted a close race should take a long hard look in the mirror. Any politician and any ruling party that can survive such a sports disaster, have much deeper roots than anyone estimted.


[update: on October 26 a second round of elections shall be held, between president Dilma Rousseff of the PT and Aécio Neves of the PSDB]

[update: Rousseff was relected. ] 

Elections in India

The greatest democratic elections on the globe are taking place, in India, between April 7th to May 12th this year.

Three parties compete for dominance of the 16th Lok Sabha:

The Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP ) under the leadership of Narendra Modi

The Indian National Congress (INC) under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi.

The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(AIADMK) under the leadership of  J. Jayalalithaa.

Who shall win? polls speak of a possible victory for Modi and the BJP, but they do not speak of an outright victory. Considering their level of accuracy, we will have to wait for the real results. India, due its size and cultural complexity, is even harder to predict than other democracies....

Narendra Modi

 Rahul Gandhi

J. Jayalalithaa

If you know to know a little bit more, take a look at John Oliver's take of these elections. Funny and smart, maybe not as respectful as some Indians would have liked him to be, but this was one of the most serious reports in U.S media of the greatest democratic elections on the globe: 

U.S elections wrap-up

Well, the U.S 2012 elections are over. Obama has won. 

Told you so, didn't I? 

But it is not a post to gloat. 

This is also not one to deal with statistical models that triumphed (because as investment strategies have repeatedly shown - what works at one time, does not work in another and widely spread predictions have this strange impact, of changing the future in an unpredictable manner). 

This is a post to look at the satiric highlights of the last elections. 

But before going on for my winners, one cannot avoid mentioning Barack Obama's post-victory tweet: "Four more years", and the image that escorted that tweet - 

It does tell you something about the man who will rule the United States
and take a leading role in the International management of our planet for the next four(+) years.

And without further words, the best satiric art expressions:

1) Talking of and to Mitt Romney was "Mitt Romney style" (parodizing the Korean super-hit, Psy's "Gangnam Style"):


2) The best satiric art expression talking of and to Barack Obama was "Obama that I used to know" ( parodizing The Australian hit, Gotye's "somebody that i used to know"):

United States elects a president

The U.S presidential elections take place today. Most polls indicate a very close race. Neither devastating Hurricane Sandy, nor Friday's jobs report  helped to break the tie. Even Astrologers limit their predictive language to a minimum.

If you here analysts predicting, the Webcomic XKCD has a strip which reminds us all of the limited value of predictive rules based on past knowledge:

(XKCD licensed this under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 License).

Which leaves us with the only lesson past truly teaches us: we have to wait and see. 

However, one cannot avoid from guessing the results of such races. And my personal guess is that the incumbent is going to win, and do it in a manner which shall be more significant than the polls predict. 

My reasons, other than political intuition ? none, really. Haven't you read the comic strip ? 

first free national elections for 60 years in Libya

More than a 100 parties competed on the Libyan citizen's vote yesterday, in a surprisngly peaceful elections. As concensus is slowly discovered to be a target hard to reach, the elected Parliament shall not create the future constitution of the state, but a different panel, to be elected in the coming future.

This slow process of reinvention of the state by its citizens is a great proof of the great possibilites that lie in the democratic framework. Unlike others, I remain firm in my belief in the democratization process that is taking place in the middle east.

I am not naive to think that it will surely bring a peaceful reality to the region in the near future. Europe's democratization process brought the world through two international bloody conflicts in the forms of World War I and World War II, before a form of peace came upon its western part. It took another half of a century before the Cold War, a state of affairs which threatened the entire world came to an end. 

But despite knowing all that, we all know that societies which keep a living democratic process do not enter states of war lightheadedly. The process of consensus creation prevents that. 

And therefore, I believe that the more people in the middle east experience deciding through voting, the less violent the area will become. It may take a long time or a short time - we have no way to appreciate the true meaning of the information age on the societies taking part in this process. I personally believe it will be a shorter time frame than most experts suggest. 

Egypt has a new president

Egypt has a new president !

Mohamed Morsi, the nominee of the Islamic Brotherhood, was declared president this Sunday.
It has been reported that he had won 52% of the votes. The recent weeks in Egypt were a turmoil, and the fact that the elections for the parliament have been disqualified, means that it will take some more time before one can really see the new face of the Egyptian democracy. It is still unclear whether the controlling army will let Morsi rule, or will limit each of his steps. 

Only time will tell if this shall be a true step towards democracy, or another in the weird dance of the Egyptian military Oligarchy, attempting to keep the reigns of government in their hands without the people realizing this reality. 

Personally, one can only wish Morsi that he will be able to lead his people to a better future, of prosperty, justice and peace.

Egypt votes for presidency

After having elected a parliament, Egypt is choosing a new president today. Egypt is the second arab country to be taken this far by the waves of the Arab Spring, after Tunisia. As Monsef Marzouki, Tunisia's president confessed to having nightmares because of his responsibility, one can only imagine how hard it will be to try and govern the the most populated country in the middle east.

It is still unclear whether any of the nominees will be able to secure the required support - 50% of the votes - to win the first round, or that a second round between those leading the first round shall be held in a few weeks time.

Whoever wins this great democratic competition is going to face a rough challenge and bear a great responsibility. Not only shall he face the complicated and delicate process of receiving the power from the army, but he shall lead the process of passing Egypt from a provisional constitution to its future form of democratic system. This role of a founding leader of a nation is an opportunity that is given very rarely to very few persons. 

Let us all wish the Egyptian people - may the best person for the job wins. 

Ten candidates forbidden to run to Egyptian presidency

If anyone wondered how Egypt's current regime plans on maintaining its hold of the country's, despite the Islamists decision to try and win the presidential elections, a clear answer has been given by the disqualification of 10 nominees from running to the presidency.

The Islamists who have tried to use their power in the legislative branch to stop Mubarac-related persons from taking place in the elections are now discovering that the old elite is not less willing to do what it takes in setting the rules of the game in a manner that will ensure victory.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/14/us-egypt-presidency-idUSBRE83D0D620120414

According to Reuters, 10 of the 23 candidates had been disqualified from the race. The 3 most notable figures are -

• Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, a Salafi, was disqualified because his mother held U.S. citizenship (He denies this fact).
•  Khairat al-Shater (of the The Muslim Brotherhood) was disqualified because of a criminal record (He claims the record is a result of the authorities persection because of his political activity).
• Omar Suleiman, formerly The chief of intelligence, was disqualified for not following the requirements regarding the geographic spread of persons supporting his nomination for presidency.

As it was expected that the elections would go to a second round in June, it now appears that the electoral map is redrawn. The remaining leading figures are -

• Abdel Moneim Abul-Fotouh who is percieved as the most liberal of the leading Islamist candidates;
•  Amr Moussa, the former foreign minister and  Secretary General of the Arab League, who is perceived as the consensus candidate of the secular Egyptians;

As one truly finds it hard that a person of Suleiman's experience will make a stupid beaurocratic error as the one presented as the cause for his disqualification, one cannot help but feel that this has been an orchestrated action, planned in advance, aimed at convincing the majority of Egyptians in the fairness of the decision that take out of the race the most prominent Islamist figures (which are not moderate enough in the eyes of the current regime).

As it can be expected that followers of the disqualified persons will not accept the decision peacefully, it is safe to assume that the council of generals ruling Egypt are willing to take large risks now, to prevent larger risks in the coming future.

What remains to be seen is how will the Islamists respond. Are they going to unite behind the moderate Islamist nominee, with the hope of using the years to come and the democratic mechanisms for a long term change (in a way similar to the one which has been taking place in Turkey) ?  Or will they consider the new situation a proof for the Elite's unwillingness to change the rules of the game, and will seek any form of protest to try and change the decision ? As far as one can believe the polls, Amr Moussa who was the leading nominee in polls taken before this decision, is the person most benefited by the decision. Moussa, a part of the Egyptian Elite, is probably the Army's most desired nominee.  

However one looks at the evolving situation in Egypt, one thing is clear - these are intersting times in Egypt.

[due credit: I first read of the presidential elections commission's decision on the blog Elder of Zion.]

The Way We've Traveled

While U.S Republicans are struggling among themselves in a deliberately prolonged and exhaustive primaries, which will most probably end with neither nominee percieved as capable after a too-aggressive campaing, president Barack Obama  can begin his campaing enjoying the full support of his party.

One of the opening shots - a video narrated by actor Tom Hanks titled "The way We've Traveled" is a political propaganda master piece. It is a skillfully constructed narrative, presenting Obama's strength and setting a perspective which shall be hard to change for the average viewer.  I believe this is one piece that shall be studied in years to come by political science researchers and political advisors.
Most definitely worth taking the time.

הדומה והשונה בין איראן לישראל

הרשויות באיראן התכוננו היטב לבחירות הקרבות, מדווחת התקשורת העולמית. כמה עיתונאים, סופרים ובלוגרים נאסרו, והפיקוח על האינטרנט הוגבר מאוד. על פי הדיווחים נראה שהמשטר באיראן הפיק לקחים מהבחירות הקודמות ומ"אביב העמים" הערבי, והוא עושה כל שביכולתו כדי להקדים רפואה למכה. עצוב.

בינתים, בישראל, מחר בבוקר, יובאו למשפט כמה פעילים של המחאה החברתית הישראלית מהקיץ האחרון. על פי התמונות שהועלו לפייסבוק, קשה שלא להתרשם שהאנשים הלא-נכונים יעמדו מחר בבית-המשפט. הסיפור שמספרות התמונות דורש שבמקום הפעילים, יעמדו  שם שוטרים ממשטרת ישראל שעשו שימוש באלימות רבה, והוסיפו חטא על פשע בהאשימם את הפעילים באלימות דומה.

לא זהה, בוודאי, אבל מתחיל להיות דומה. דומה מדי.

לפעמים הקרובים לך בדעותיהם הם המסוכנים ביותר

משעשע לראות כיצד בישראל ובארה"ב מתרחשים תהליכים דומים.

בארה"ב, מיט רומני עלול לאבד את סיכוייו לנצח במירוץ לנשיאות מול הנשיא המכהן, ברק אובמה, בגלל התעמולה שהמתמודדים מולו במפלגה הרפובליקאית עתידים לנהל, ככל שהולך ומסתמן שהוא המנצח במירוץ.

בישראל, כניסתו (הפורמלית, סוף סוף) של יאיר לפיד לזירה הפוליטית במפלגה משלו, תועיל על-פי הסקרים, בעיקר לליכוד. המרכז הפוליטי הישראלי רק יינזק מהפיצול שלפיד יביא איתו.

האם ידעו האינדיבידואלים השונים בזירות הפוליטיות השונות לשים את האינטרסים האישיים בצד ולעבוד יחד למען הערכים המשותפים ? זאת, אחרי הכל, היא ההקרבה אותה אמור לעשות כל אדם המבקש לקדם את ערכיו בחברה, לא ? אפשר ממש לשמוע את אנחת-החמלה שלכם על תמימותי. בתקופה שלנו, כולנו יודעים, פוליטיקאים כבר לא עושים את זה. 

Joseph Kabila sworn in for 2nd term after tumultuous elections and post-elections

Joseph Kabila was sworn in Tuesday for another term as president of the Democratic Republic of the  Congo. 
Everyone, including Kabila himself, admit there were problems in the elections. Though the scale and impact on results is not clear, it seems that this dispute, despite the Congolese supreme court decision to confirm the official results, will shadow Kabila's second term in office, to the detriment of the Congo. 

Egypt votes

Egyptians are voting today, in what we all wish will be the beginning of a long and glamorous democratic tradition. But truthfully, regardless of possible future outcomes, this is a truly exciting moment.

Once again, human beings are taking part in a process through which they attempt to reign their own destiny. 

A guide to Egypt’s coming post-revolution elections

IRIN, the United Nations Office for the coordination of Humanitarian news and analysis service, brings an excellent analysis of the coming elections in Egypt. Definitely worth taking a look for anyone interested in the Arab Spring and the political changes in Egypt.

As the report tells of many doubts and fears people raise regarding these elections, I think it is important to remember that the democratic mechanism is religion-blind.

It does not really matter who really wins these elections. What is crucial is that following these elections -
A true democratic parliament shall function. A parliament whose members enjoy true freedom of speech. A parliament whose members enjoy a true ability to form coalitions, efficiently inspect the actions of the  executive branch, and legislate laws which are truly obeyed.

As long as a true multiparty system shall operate in Egypt, and as long as the parliament shall stand to true open elections every several years, in a process that shall protect the citizens freedom of speech and right to a free and independent vote, Egypt's democracy shall be able to take the people of Egypt to a prosperous future.

Tyrants and great democratic leaders can come from all layers of society and all backgrounds. But they cannot rule alone. As long as every Egyptian citizen shall see himself as mutually responsible for the functioning of the emerging Egyptian democracy, that democracy shall live and thrive. 

Tunisia votes !

The first free elections since the middle eastern spring of nations has began are beginning today in Tunisia.
Youtube gives a great opportunity to take a peek at the Tunisian political discourse.
May this be a blessed new beginning for the people of Tunisia, on a path of freedom and prosperity !