13.3.2011

pay attention: a milestone being missed

Japan's strongest-ever earthquake and its horrible results, has taken the world's attention away from the middle east.
Gadafi continues his retaliation against rebels still undisturbed by the world who watches peopel fight under the flag of freedom without assisting them, even by praise alone.
And some anonymous Palestinians have found a gap in an israeli settlement's security, and slaughtered 5 members of a jewish family - the two parents, and 3 of their kids - aged 11, 4 and 3 months old.

This last event - the slaughter of the Fogel family, of Udi Fogel, 37, Ruth Fogel, 36, Yoav Fogel, 10, four-year-old Elad Fogel, and three-months old Hadas, is not a small, unimportant event, as international news sources appear to play it down. Al-Jazeera has made a special effort in its censoreship. It's entire report is hiding the fact that one of the brutally murdered is a 3 months old baby.

But everyone interested in the middle east should understand:
The israeli society was standing before another important milestone. Benjamin Netanyahu's current government has reached a point of no-return several days ago. It was either going to start a new initiative, or change its composition of parties (and following it, its policies).
You don't need to listen to Netanyahu's statements (especially considering his past problematic reliability, or his current conflict of interests). Every Israeli government since 1995 has reached this point, sooner or later. It is that point where the Prime Minister has to choose his route, lest the accumulating impact of his past actions would make his coalition un-governable.
It is hard to point the finger on the facts making this analysis. You have to live in Israel and follow its political news, to understand that kind of semi-intuitive/semi-analysis which stands behind this statement. It has to do with the dynamics of the coalition, of the naturally rising tensions between the larger parties of the coalition, as times passes and feelings/hopes/fears of new elections weaken the ties forming the coalition. And Netanyahu was heading for that point, which - in his previous government - was the point of deciding to break to the left (a decision that was made, back then, too late, and with too little an impact, due to Netanyahu's internal restraints). This time was probably going to be similar, but the nature of recent events in the region would have opened a gap for historical-scale results, of relatively small beginnings.
The Fogel family's murder, the horrific descriptions of this slaughter of a young boy, a toddler and a small baby being published in Israeli press, in such a sensitive point-in-time, may prove a great success for Palestinian anti-peace terror. Standing at a crossroads, now Netanyahu's choice, considering his background, education, self-preferences, and current winds in the Israeli public, is clear: he will break right.

The only way out of this route, is if the Palestinian will locate the murderer(s), and pass him/them to the hands of Israeli security forces. Otherwise, the murder of the Fogel family shall be the beginning of another tenseful period, in which peace shall draw a little farther into the future, remaining yet again, seemingly impossible to achieve at the current time.

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