25.1.2012

July sanctions leave a significant room for play for all sides

The European Union decided to promote further sanctions on Iran, till the country ceases its nuclear weapon development efforts: 
"The sanctions freeze the assets of Iran's central bank in European Union nations and ban the importation of Iranian oil to those countries. The measures also block European Union countries from exporting petrochemical equipment and technology to Iran, or trading diamonds and precious metals with the Middle Eastern state." 
The sanctions are not immediate, and as they are set to become effective only on July 1st, one cannot help but feel that it is another attempt to persuade Iran to be reasonable.

Even after these sanctions will become effective, Iran will probably still continue selling oil to countries that refuse to cooperate with the U.S policy aiming to prevent a nuclear Iran, like China, India and other Asian countries. Today, such sales make about a third of Iran's revenue from oil.

Iranian officials have expressed clearly in the past that if sanctions are set, Iran will block the strait of Hormuz. Communicating with this threat, a convoy made of U.S, British and French ships has "completed a regular and routine transit of the strait", shortly after the announcement of the sanctions.

Israel, another player in this intricate web, and a highly aspired target for that nuclear weapon, if developed, according to Iran's president various statements, has made it clear it has no intentions to attack Iran's nuclear facilities in the near future. Although considering past events, had I been Iranian, I wouldn't manage my affairs according to senior Israeli statesmen, One cannot feel that the declaration of the sanctions and the following discourse of actions and words, is but another step in a dialogue, which will probably continue to unfold in the coming months.

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